I don't think results would necessarily be better drafting more HS arms in the first round and I think the key is to mix in plenty of long term projects in with these college guys as well. I think the fact that the 1st round college arms we draft have been mid to late rotation guys is more a function of continually drafting in the 20s than it is of drafting college pitchers. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were both college pitchers. We have drafted some HS pitchers in the first round as well. The last five are Jake Woodford (2015 - #39), Jack Flaherty (2014 - #34), Rob Kaminsky (2013 - #28), Tyrell Jenkins (2010 - #50), and Shelby Miller (2009 - #19). None of those picks has been a home run, though the Flaherty one gets a pass because his issues have been injury related. He clearly does have the stuff if he can stay healthy.Thanks for the insight Pruman. Please don't take this as being argumentative. There is nothing certain when it comes to the mlb draft especially pitchers. My question is- is it better to take a probable #3 pitcher who gets to the majors in a couple of years or take a younger player with more potential that gets there 3 years later but "might" develop into a #1 or 2 SP? As the article says, St Lou says the former. I can't say they are wrong. They certainly know more than I ever will. Thing is, we have been disappointed so many times by players who don't live up to their potential.
Not a one of these pitchers has exceeded expectations for a full year. IE: been a #1 or 2 starter. All have been the equivalent of a #4 starter over a full season.
Griffin Roberts hasn't pitched above AA. And that was only 4 innings.
Michael McGreevy gets a pass in this discussion.
Zack Thompson comments are based more on his minor league record.
Dakota Hudson has been injured but you can't be considered a #5 starter if you are on the IL.
In their overall careers Marco Gonzales and Luke Weaver are no better than a #3 starter and they may be closer to a #4 with a few solid games sprinkled in.