To the people who are on the under 5 wins (confident in that belief) side of the coin, do you mind explaining which games you view as certain losses? 5-7 is a completely reasonable expectation in my mind.
Schedule:
vs. Murray State: This should be a win in everyone's mind. If it isn't, you're probably being too aggressively pessimistic. Lighten up! We have a significantly better coaching staff!
vs. North Carolina: Lost some key pieces (QB!), at home (still a tough game)
vs. Western Michigan: Top tier MAC team, but still a MAC team. Fleck is bringing in some better talent as he goes, but it's all still young. Should be marked as a win.
@ Nebraska: We beat them at home last year, they lost multiple studs (Westerkamp, Collins, etc.), and they're still re-tooling. Tossup
vs. Purdue: Is Purdue. We get them at home. Should be 2nd easiest win of the season behind Murray State.
@ Rutgers: Also going through a coaching/scheme change, lost their best player BY FAR in Leonte Caroo to the draft. Friendly reminder, this team spiked the ball on 4th down against Michigan State last year. Very winnable ballgame, no?
@ Michigan: This is the game that can most easily be marked as a loss on our schedule.
vs Minnesota: Downgraded from Kill to Claeys, only lost by 9 on the road last year, and we have them at home. Beckman beat a better Minnesota team than what next years' will be at home, also on homecoming, two years ago.
vs. Michigan State: This game feels like a great measuring stick to me. I have no expectations of a win here (their average talent level is much higher, and their guys have received better coaching for the last 3 years), but they lost a LOT of talent, and we should hope to look competitive in a loss.
@ Wisconsin: This is probably the only one I feel is probably a loss, but less so than Michigan and Michigan State. I think their average talent level will prevail as Chryst is a good coach, as we saw last year when Bart Houston carved us up.
vs Iowa: We lost by 9 at Kinnick last year, and I think while this is probably also a loss, it's a winnable game seeing as Bill Freaking Cubit was able to keep us in the game in spite of bad playcalling. They're not flashy.
@ Northwestern: Beckman won at Northwestern 2 years ago, we only lost by 10 last year (no offensive TDs), and I don't see NW getting significantly better offensively anytime soon. This is a winnable game as well.
I find it hard to believe anyone confidently feels 8 or 9 of these games are losses right now. There are questions for us at WR (who plays slot? do we fix the drops?), LB (who is third LB with Hardy Jr. and Crawford?), and S (who is #2 safety, does Barton give us a good year), and also about if our TEs can stay healthy, but I don't think we're that bad off. Our DL alone will make our defense formidable, imo. I'm interested to hear the reasoning behind the pessimistic viewpoints, makes for good discussion