KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
Yes - and also remember we played much of last season without a healthy TE. Having a healthy TE that can be involved in the passing game should help the offense overall.
Illini Football 2016
Yes - and also remember we played much of last season without a healthy TE. Having a healthy TE that can be involved in the passing game should help the offense overall.
So... the long and short of this little discussion. 4 wins underacheive 7 wins overacheive
I don't know if I'd call 7 wins overachieving, I think anything from 5-7 wins is the range we should reasonably expect based on the schedule and assuming no further injury (*knock on wood*), and anything under that is underachieving, and over is overachieving. That said, I'd be far more surprised by a scenario where we underachieve than a scenario where we overachieve, again based on what I think is actually not that difficult a schedule (we finally don't have to play tOSU! Woo!). Just get to a bowl game, and we'll parlay that into greener pastures down the road
I'm fully expecting 7 wins for sure. More than that I'll be wishing as much as anyone. As someone pointed out in a previous post, if we can one or even both of those games that are dogs in, at least right now, we could maybe even win 9 or dare I say 10 games.
Is that you Kid?
Lol nah. I thought we could legitimately get 7 wins with Cubit. Now, we have added Nickerson, Julian Jones and President to bolster the defense along with our all NFL coaching staff. I think the player additions probably boost us to 8 wins and the coaching staff alone has to be good for another 2. I dont think we should under estimate this staff and how they will likely have this team playing. There could be things that happen along the way, you know, win one we arent supposed to and lose one we should win so I would say anywhere from 8 to 10 wins could happen. But my faith may be misguided.
I would say something as seemingly mythical as an 8-10 win season is certainly far more possible than it was 2 months ago, but I still wouldn't tell anyone to expect anything like that. I will be plenty happy with 6 when we account for scheme overhauls (how will OL handle having to play both sides, for example?), some personnel fit issues (Lunt is the best man for QB, but not necessarily the scheme), and so on. I wouldn't have trusted Cubit to get us 6 with this schedule, because it's not the easiest ever, but Lovie definitely opens the mind to the possibility of 8-10 we wouldn't have envisioned with Cubit with this schedule that is weaker than some we've had over the last couple of years.
There's someone I haven't thought about in a long time. Back from my days on Scout.
JDHalfrack
- Springfield, IL
I'm a natural pessimist, so take that into account, but if we win more than 4 games this upcoming season it'll be a miracle.
I'm thrilled with the hires, I'm thrilled with the moves Lovie's making, etc... That said, when all of our analysis says "if we catch [enter opponent here] at the right time" or "there's a chance that [enter opponent here] will be worse than last year" just to get to 6 wins, then how can anyone honestly think we will win 9 games?
I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that if it does, it'll be more luck based than "I knew that was going to happen" based...
I'm thrilled with the hires, I'm thrilled with the moves Lovie's making, etc... That said, when all of our analysis says "if we catch [enter opponent here] at the right time" or "there's a chance that [enter opponent here] will be worse than last year" just to get to 6 wins, then how can anyone honestly think we will win 9 games?
I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that if it does, it'll be more luck based than "I knew that was going to happen" based...
My guess is that Vegas will put us at 5 wins, and that's where we should set expectations around. I think about Michigan last year (after winning 5 games the year before) as proof positive that coaching makes a HUGE difference in Big Ten play. We're not still quite sure how Lovie will adjust to college ball, but I'd expect him to be in the top half from day 1.
Bottom line is that if we make a bowl, I'd be happy (and glad we surpassed expectations), but not actually that surprised.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Agree.
Expecting 8-10 wins with this roster (especially on offense) seems a little nuts. The biggest weak spot IMO is the receiving core. This is group that dropped so many passes last year that it became a running joke among fans. And all we've done over the offseason is lose our two best receivers to injury and graduation.
Sure, under Lovie we'll run the ball more, but we simply don't have the OL to run people over for 60 mins. We ain't Wisconsin. We're going to need to pass the ball to get defenders out of the box.
I think the key this season is to keep up the momentum from this hire and show improvement over last season. Six wins and a bowl should be the goal. Fans will want more, of course, but what's important in the long run is to keep excitement about the future high to help score victories recruiting trail.
JDHalfrack
- Springfield, IL
If we go to a bowl game this year, I'll be absolutely ecstatic. I just have a hard time even seeing 6 wins :/
5 seems very realistic with a lucky/fluke win, but getting 2 or more such wins just would absolutely shock me, but I'd be okay with that
5 seems very realistic with a lucky/fluke win, but getting 2 or more such wins just would absolutely shock me, but I'd be okay with that
My expectation for next year is that we play some competitive football regardless how many games we win or if we make a bowl game. I want to see a competitive edge, better coaching, more discipline, fewer mistakes and more good players showing interest in Illinois football. We could lose every game but if I see those things happening, then I'm happy.
To the people who are on the under 5 wins (confident in that belief) side of the coin, do you mind explaining which games you view as certain losses? 5-7 is a completely reasonable expectation in my mind.
Schedule:
vs. Murray State: This should be a win in everyone's mind. If it isn't, you're probably being too aggressively pessimistic. Lighten up! We have a significantly better coaching staff!
vs. North Carolina: Lost some key pieces (QB!), at home (still a tough game)
vs. Western Michigan: Top tier MAC team, but still a MAC team. Fleck is bringing in some better talent as he goes, but it's all still young. Should be marked as a win.
@ Nebraska: We beat them at home last year, they lost multiple studs (Westerkamp, Collins, etc.), and they're still re-tooling. Tossup
vs. Purdue: Is Purdue. We get them at home. Should be 2nd easiest win of the season behind Murray State.
@ Rutgers: Also going through a coaching/scheme change, lost their best player BY FAR in Leonte Caroo to the draft. Friendly reminder, this team spiked the ball on 4th down against Michigan State last year. Very winnable ballgame, no?
@ Michigan: This is the game that can most easily be marked as a loss on our schedule.
vs Minnesota: Downgraded from Kill to Claeys, only lost by 9 on the road last year, and we have them at home. Beckman beat a better Minnesota team than what next years' will be at home, also on homecoming, two years ago.
vs. Michigan State: This game feels like a great measuring stick to me. I have no expectations of a win here (their average talent level is much higher, and their guys have received better coaching for the last 3 years), but they lost a LOT of talent, and we should hope to look competitive in a loss.
@ Wisconsin: This is probably the only one I feel is probably a loss, but less so than Michigan and Michigan State. I think their average talent level will prevail as Chryst is a good coach, as we saw last year when Bart Houston carved us up.
vs Iowa: We lost by 9 at Kinnick last year, and I think while this is probably also a loss, it's a winnable game seeing as Bill Freaking Cubit was able to keep us in the game in spite of bad playcalling. They're not flashy.
@ Northwestern: Beckman won at Northwestern 2 years ago, we only lost by 10 last year (no offensive TDs), and I don't see NW getting significantly better offensively anytime soon. This is a winnable game as well.
I find it hard to believe anyone confidently feels 8 or 9 of these games are losses right now. There are questions for us at WR (who plays slot? do we fix the drops?), LB (who is third LB with Hardy Jr. and Crawford?), and S (who is #2 safety, does Barton give us a good year), and also about if our TEs can stay healthy, but I don't think we're that bad off. Our DL alone will make our defense formidable, imo. I'm interested to hear the reasoning behind the pessimistic viewpoints, makes for good discussion
Schedule:
vs. Murray State: This should be a win in everyone's mind. If it isn't, you're probably being too aggressively pessimistic. Lighten up! We have a significantly better coaching staff!
vs. North Carolina: Lost some key pieces (QB!), at home (still a tough game)
vs. Western Michigan: Top tier MAC team, but still a MAC team. Fleck is bringing in some better talent as he goes, but it's all still young. Should be marked as a win.
@ Nebraska: We beat them at home last year, they lost multiple studs (Westerkamp, Collins, etc.), and they're still re-tooling. Tossup
vs. Purdue: Is Purdue. We get them at home. Should be 2nd easiest win of the season behind Murray State.
@ Rutgers: Also going through a coaching/scheme change, lost their best player BY FAR in Leonte Caroo to the draft. Friendly reminder, this team spiked the ball on 4th down against Michigan State last year. Very winnable ballgame, no?
@ Michigan: This is the game that can most easily be marked as a loss on our schedule.
vs Minnesota: Downgraded from Kill to Claeys, only lost by 9 on the road last year, and we have them at home. Beckman beat a better Minnesota team than what next years' will be at home, also on homecoming, two years ago.
vs. Michigan State: This game feels like a great measuring stick to me. I have no expectations of a win here (their average talent level is much higher, and their guys have received better coaching for the last 3 years), but they lost a LOT of talent, and we should hope to look competitive in a loss.
@ Wisconsin: This is probably the only one I feel is probably a loss, but less so than Michigan and Michigan State. I think their average talent level will prevail as Chryst is a good coach, as we saw last year when Bart Houston carved us up.
vs Iowa: We lost by 9 at Kinnick last year, and I think while this is probably also a loss, it's a winnable game seeing as Bill Freaking Cubit was able to keep us in the game in spite of bad playcalling. They're not flashy.
@ Northwestern: Beckman won at Northwestern 2 years ago, we only lost by 10 last year (no offensive TDs), and I don't see NW getting significantly better offensively anytime soon. This is a winnable game as well.
I find it hard to believe anyone confidently feels 8 or 9 of these games are losses right now. There are questions for us at WR (who plays slot? do we fix the drops?), LB (who is third LB with Hardy Jr. and Crawford?), and S (who is #2 safety, does Barton give us a good year), and also about if our TEs can stay healthy, but I don't think we're that bad off. Our DL alone will make our defense formidable, imo. I'm interested to hear the reasoning behind the pessimistic viewpoints, makes for good discussion
I honestly think this team could win anywhere from 2-8 games, with the sweet spot probably being 5. There are far too many question marks this year pick any number with confidence, in my opinion.
That's a very optimistic assessment. Here's an alternate view from a neutral observer.
We have some road games that are certainly potential wins, but we're not going to be favorites in any of them. Then you have UNC, Iowa and MSU coming to Champaign, those are all going to be tough games. I think 4-6 wins is most likely but there's certainly a chance to do a bit better.
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Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Is a post Spring football depth chart released? (couldn't find it)
Agreed. This program will be trending up whether we win 2 games next year or 10. It's a pretty unique situation because usually the first year is pretty important for a coach to make good first impressions and get the ball rolling. Lovie doesn't really need to do that. The better recruits will come regardless. Although, winning 7+ games certainly wouldn't hurt.
dsboyce
- Golden, IL
I love the optimism, but I think you are pounding the Kool-Aid hard. I think the goal for this year is to make a bowl game, any bowl game.
Like the looks of that defensive secondary. Pretty much all senior starters, but loads of fr/soph in the backup roles. Hopefully the vets can have injury free senior years and the youngsters can be brought on slowly and surely.
Really excited for the UNC game. Think I am glad it will be getting exposure;-) Could really see that game going either way. The score last year was not indicative for most of the game, the venues are swapped, and with the season they had last year a win here would be a statement for the new coaching staff. We win this game and I think it puts a lot of other games into play, really all but UM as you would expect our team to improve more throughout the season with a new staff than the other teams. Lose this one, especially if embarrassingly, and I think we could be looking at a 3-4 win season.
As much as we are all ecstatic with the coaching situation, looking at the depth chart on OL I think we have to admit the previous regime did help us out in that area. Chayce Crouch is going to get to play behind a really good bunch.
As much as we are all ecstatic with the coaching situation, looking at the depth chart on OL I think we have to admit the previous regime did help us out in that area. Chayce Crouch is going to get to play behind a really good bunch.
Honestly, I don't think he ever starts for us at QB, save an injury disaster.
Not sure which thread to add this, but this could be an option for RB depth.
Denzell Evans RB
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...fer-from-arkansas/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs
Denzell Evans RB
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...fer-from-arkansas/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs