You are picking and choosing what you want to hear...this is exactly what I put.You mentioned the Marlins specifically, and it's Luzardo by process of elimination. Marlins aren't parting with Alcantara or Cabrera, at least not for TON and a prospect, unless that prospect is Walker or Winn. And it's not misleading to say Luzardo has major question marks. Yes, he was good last season when he was healthy and yes he's been good this season. But he still only pitched 100 innings last season. And he's not that far removed from some really bad 2021 numbers. It really is similar to Matz, is my point, that's all. Matz also had a good year with Toronto, after a mixed track record and a bad 2020 with the Mets. Matz also struggled to pitch consistent innings, though he at least hit 150 a few times, which Luzardo has never done. Since the Cardinals won't spend on free agent pitching, trade is going to be the most realistic shot at getting an ace, and I'm not sure Luzardo is the basket I'd put my eggs in.
"It will be an under the radar pitcher or mid 20s pitcher say from the Marlins who have experience and could thrive in a different environment. Likely be TON and a prospect if that happens."
I mentioned a few random pitchers in other posts before. It is an opinion, doesn't mean it will happen or I even want it to happen. The only person I have mentioned on here countless times before they can give almost whatever up for is Ohtani and I would be fine with it.
To your quote above, difference between Matz and Luzardo is a decent amount. Mozeliak threw around that deal to Matz before pitching prices went up. Not sure why he did it but he would have looked like a genius if it worked out. Unfortunately for us it has been a nightmare. Luzardo has 3 more years of arbitration after this one. I would actually like the Cardinals to re-sign Montgomery but doubt they will. If they wouldn't, Luzardo is a lefty that is around the same level with more upside. Don't let the numbers fool you...Luzardo got no run support last season at all. He was 4-7 with a 3.32 ERA in 18 starts and the team gave him 3 runs or less in 80% of his starts. Most runs they gave him all season was 5 runs....one time. He is 2-1 this season and team is 5-1 when he starts. Like I said before I never mentioned I want this to happen but I am positive the front office knows about him already even if nothing comes out of it. I would love the Cardinals to get an ace, but TON and just a prospect would be good to get a #2 range pitcher. It might seem like the Cardinals front office guys sit around but they are on the road all the time.