Bowl Projections

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#76      
From what I saw in the suites, there were at least 3 bowl representatives at the game this weekend. Quick Lane, Cheeze It (again) and a one from an extremely prestigious bowl that occurs in January. This rep stayed down the hall from me at the iHotel and we exchanged pleasantries. Was coy about rooting interest / city of origin but the luggage tags gave it away.
 
#78      

redwingillini11

White and Sixth
North Aurora
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/bowls/predictions/
Dec. 31 Music City team logo
Illinois
vs.
team logo
Mississippi St
Big Ten vs. SEC 12 p.m. Nashville, Tenn.

-Schlabach: Reliaquest Bowl vs. Kentucky
-Bonagura: Citrus Bowl vs. Ole Miss

ORANGE BOWL​

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Illinois

Perhaps the most difficult New Year's Six matchup to project at this point, this ACC against Big Ten game changed from NC State vs. Penn State to Wake Forest and Illinois this week. North Carolina could be an option too if the Tar Heels win the Coastal with a single loss and then fall to Clemson in the ACC Championship. N.C. State is out of the mix with two losses and more on the way after losing starting quarterback Devin Leary for the season. Illinois appears to be the odds-on favorite to win its side of the Big Ten after Saturday's win over Minnesota.

Citrus-Bowl-75th-Anniversary-Logo-157w-140h.png

Citrus Bowl​

Monday, Jan. 2

Orlando, FL
ill.png

Illinois​

lsu.png

LSU​

-4.5

ReliaQuest Bowl​

Monday, January 2, 2023
12:00, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Year: Arkansas 24, Penn State 10
Bowl Ties: SEC vs Big Ten or ACC
Bowl Projection: Kentucky vs Illinois

Music City Bowl (Dec. 31)​

Tie-In: Big Ten vs. SEC

Projection: Illinois vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. Kentucky
 
#79      

turnaround3

1st & Daniel
Let's get fully out ahead of these skis and have the Pasadena discussion. Best as I can tell, only two paths exist:

1) The slam dunk path is running the table, including a win in Ann Arbor, to go 11-1. At that point in some sense I don't think it matters how the B1G championship goes because the committee won't put an Illinois team with a loss to Indiana in the CFP as far as I'm concerned, no matter what. So you win in Indy and you rep the B1G as champion in the Rose, you lose in Indy and you should still be the highest CFP-ranked team available for the Rose after the champion goes to the CFP.

The only scenario that muddles this is if Michigan beats OSU the week after losing to us, then turns around and beats us in Indy. I suspect an idle OSU (somewhat unfairly, IMO, but such is life in the CFP era) stays ahead of us in the CFP rankings in this scenario and by default gets the Rose nod. But this is a *pretty* unlikely scenario, all things considered.

2) The other, *much* less likely way to go about this would be as follows:

1) Michigan & OSU meet in their finale undefeated
2) We make it to Indy at 10-2 having lost our game in Ann Arbor
3) UM/OSU winner beats us in Indy, UM/OSU loser somehow still sneaks in CFP (I think if this is OSU it's slightly more likely because of the brand) if SEC teams cannibalizing each other falls the right away - such as Bama hanging a 2nd regular season loss, loser of Tenn/Georgia doing the same, etc
4) PSU has a 2nd loss on their resume in this scenario (OSU beat them) and so we're simply the clear cut highest ranked B1G available for the Rose


It's fun to dream.
 
#80      
Let's get fully out ahead of these skis and have the Pasadena discussion. Best as I can tell, only two paths exist:

1) The slam dunk path is running the table, including a win in Ann Arbor, to go 11-1. At that point in some sense I don't think it matters how the B1G championship goes because the committee won't put an Illinois team with a loss to Indiana in the CFP as far as I'm concerned, no matter what. So you win in Indy and you rep the B1G as champion in the Rose, you lose in Indy and you should still be the highest CFP-ranked team available for the Rose after the champion goes to the CFP.

The only scenario that muddles this is if Michigan beats OSU the week after losing to us, then turns around and beats us in Indy. I suspect an idle OSU (somewhat unfairly, IMO, but such is life in the CFP era) stays ahead of us in the CFP rankings in this scenario and by default gets the Rose nod. But this is a *pretty* unlikely scenario, all things considered.

2) The other, *much* less likely way to go about this would be as follows:

1) Michigan & OSU meet in their finale undefeated
2) We make it to Indy at 10-2 having lost our game in Ann Arbor
3) UM/OSU winner beats us in Indy, UM/OSU loser somehow still sneaks in CFP (I think if this is OSU it's slightly more likely because of the brand) if SEC teams cannibalizing each other falls the right away - such as Bama hanging a 2nd regular season loss, loser of Tenn/Georgia doing the same, etc
4) PSU has a 2nd loss on their resume in this scenario (OSU beat them) and so we're simply the clear cut highest ranked B1G available for the Rose


It's fun to dream.
12-1 B10 Champ Illinois with wins over OSU and Michigan absolutely gets into the playoff there's no debate about it. Won't happen but if that's the scencario we'd absolutely be in the Top 4.
 
#81      

turnaround3

1st & Daniel
12-1 B10 Champ Illinois with wins over OSU and Michigan absolutely gets into the playoff there's no debate about it. Won't happen but if that's the scencario we'd absolutely be in the Top 4.
Upon review, I'm going to partially agree.

12-1 Illinois with two wins over Michigan (who can play in B1G title even with home L to us), I'm not sure. I think OSU brand maybe bails them out, the committee has issued similar benefit of the doubt in years prior.

12-1 Illinois with wins at Ann Arbor and over OSU in Indy yes, I have to completely agree with you.

As we both alluded to, none of this is going to happen but wild that we get to even discuss these hypotheticals knocking on the doorstep of November.
 
#83      

Ransom Stoddard

Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Hope it's not the Reliaquest bowl. That is such a lame name for a bowl game. Outback Bowl wasn't great but it was way better than that.
Bowl names have been a rolling source of scorn and laughter for years.

The Poulan Weedeater Independence Bowl
The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
TaxSlayer Bowl (defunct now, I think)
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl (2017 only)
 
#88      
Exactly. Wouldn't be a debate.

Yes, it potentially would. We would not get in over an unbeaten Clemson or TCU. Then you have the Bama/Georgia/Tennessee trio. Say Georgia beats Tennessee and then loses to Alabama in the SEC title game. 1 loss Alabama and Georgia definitely get in over us and that still leaves a 1 loss Tennessee team as well.

There's also an undefeated Ole Miss hanging around the SEC West and an undefeated UCLA still kicking out west too.
 
#89      
I live in SoCal so I want Illini to go to Rose Bowl and payback either USC for 2008 or UCLA for 1984.

BCS candidates (undefeated P5)

OSU
Michigan
Clemson
Georgia
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Kentucky

Need some way for OSU and Michigan to make BCS to clear the way for Illini to Rose Bowl. If we beat Michigan and if they also lose to OSU then they have two losses. If we lose to OSU in title game we will have 2 losses as well. Hard to see Rose Bowl taking us over Michigan.
 
#90      
I live in SoCal so I want Illini to go to Rose Bowl and payback either USC for 2008 or UCLA for 1984.

BCS candidates (undefeated P5)

OSU
Michigan
Clemson
Georgia
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Kentucky

Need some way for OSU and Michigan to make BCS to clear the way for Illini to Rose Bowl. If we beat Michigan and if they also lose to OSU then they have two losses. If we lose to OSU in title game we will have 2 losses as well. Hard to see Rose Bowl taking us over Michigan.
You need to take Kentucky off that list ?!?!?!?!?
 
#91      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Yes, it potentially would. We would not get in over an unbeaten Clemson or TCU. Then you have the Bama/Georgia/Tennessee trio. Say Georgia beats Tennessee and then loses to Alabama in the SEC title game. 1 loss Alabama and Georgia definitely get in over us and that still leaves a 1 loss Tennessee team as well.

There's also an undefeated Ole Miss hanging around the SEC West and an undefeated UCLA still kicking out west too.
Undefeated champions of each of the other four Power Five conferences is the only scenario, and that's exceedingly unlikely.

But not as unlikely as us winning out, so 🤷‍♂️
 
#92      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Let's get fully out ahead of these skis and have the Pasadena discussion. Best as I can tell, only two paths exist:

1) The slam dunk path is running the table, including a win in Ann Arbor, to go 11-1. At that point in some sense I don't think it matters how the B1G championship goes because the committee won't put an Illinois team with a loss to Indiana in the CFP as far as I'm concerned, no matter what. So you win in Indy and you rep the B1G as champion in the Rose, you lose in Indy and you should still be the highest CFP-ranked team available for the Rose after the champion goes to the CFP.

The only scenario that muddles this is if Michigan beats OSU the week after losing to us, then turns around and beats us in Indy. I suspect an idle OSU (somewhat unfairly, IMO, but such is life in the CFP era) stays ahead of us in the CFP rankings in this scenario and by default gets the Rose nod. But this is a *pretty* unlikely scenario, all things considered.

2) The other, *much* less likely way to go about this would be as follows:

1) Michigan & OSU meet in their finale undefeated
2) We make it to Indy at 10-2 having lost our game in Ann Arbor
3) UM/OSU winner beats us in Indy, UM/OSU loser somehow still sneaks in CFP (I think if this is OSU it's slightly more likely because of the brand) if SEC teams cannibalizing each other falls the right away - such as Bama hanging a 2nd regular season loss, loser of Tenn/Georgia doing the same, etc
4) PSU has a 2nd loss on their resume in this scenario (OSU beat them) and so we're simply the clear cut highest ranked B1G available for the Rose


It's fun to dream.
Agreed. You nailed it!
 
#93      
Yes, it potentially would. We would not get in over an unbeaten Clemson or TCU. Then you have the Bama/Georgia/Tennessee trio. Say Georgia beats Tennessee and then loses to Alabama in the SEC title game. 1 loss Alabama and Georgia definitely get in over us and that still leaves a 1 loss Tennessee team as well.

There's also an undefeated Ole Miss hanging around the SEC West and an undefeated UCLA still kicking out west too.
A 12-1 B1G champ gets in 100 out of 100 times. Why is this even a debate?
 
#96      

Music CityDec. 31Illinois (Big Ten No. 4) vs. Arkansas (SEC Nos. 3-8)NashvilleNoon ABC

That's a matchup I'm sure the bowls and TV networks would love to make happen.
I’d be a-okay with this. I’m in training down in Montgomery right now and could easily make that drive.
 
#97      
Undefeated champions of each of the other four Power Five conferences is the only scenario, and that's exceedingly unlikely.

But not as unlikely as us winning out, so 🤷‍♂️

LOL. Wrong. A 1 loss Alabama or 1 loss Georgia team gets in over a 1 loss Illinois team 100x out of 100.

There is no way a 1 loss Illinois team gets in over a 1 loss SEC champ.
 
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#98      
A 12-1 B1G champ gets in 100 out of 100 times. Why is this even a debate?

Are you kidding me?

Undefeated Clemson, undefeated TCU, undefeated UCLA, and a 1-loss Alabama (loss to Tenn) or an undefeated or 1-loss Georgia team (loss to Bama) all get in over a 12-1 Illinois team that lost to Indiana.

That's not even a debate.
 
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