Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#101      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
the juiceman cometh said:
People also immediately assume Gonzaga's conference schedule is 100% cupcakes. The WCC has 3 teams in the NET top 30. That's the same number as the Big East and 2 more than the ACC (just 1!!!).
Click to expand...
In fairness, the ACC is unusually trash this year. It's a lot more valid to look at a yearly average of how each of these conferences perform. I don't have that data available, but the WCC, on average, is pretty weak compared to the power conferences. It's certainly not the weakest mid-major conference by any stretch, but probably 80% of Gonzaga's conference games are not going to be competitive in a typical year.

I think the bottom line of it all is that their schedule likely leads to less wear and tear on the players, meaning they probably enter into the tournament fresher than most of the power conference teams. On the flip side, they are less battle-tested despite their generally challenging non-conference slate.

And again, all of this is meant in an average sense. The WCC is decent this year and some of the power conferences are unusually bad this year, so the gap between Gonzaga's conference schedule and, say, Duke's is probably nonexistent this season.
 
#102      

bootsy1974

B
bootsy1974
BBlock24 said:
Fox Sports has Wisky as a 2 and the Illini as a 4.
Click to expand...
tamela mann the manns GIF by TV One
 
#103      

GBIllini

G
GBIllini
Well I watched all of Dukes games this year because my wife is a fan. Their entire starting five is probably going to be drafted in the first round of the NBA with another in the second. They had some big wins, Gonzaga/Kentucky, but they also had some head scratching losses that they should never have gotten. Even with coach K at the helm they laid some eggs. While our seed and bracket placement are important. I think it is more important we play at our highest level and effort. There isn't any team out there that we can't beat and with some luck we could be NCAA CHAMPS. There are maybe a dozen teams capable winning this, we've been paying dues for a long time, why not us.
 
#104      

ptgrd23

ptgrd23
ptgrd23
I want a #2 seed. I think with some upsets and if we win the BTT we can do it. Only Gonzaga and AZ have easy conference tournament paths.

B12 Either Baylor or Kansas will lose.

SEC Either Kentucky or Auburn will lose.

Big East Either Providence or Villanova will lose

If we can win the BTT we can make an argument for a #1 seed but I am confident we will get a #2. Those early season losses to Cincinati and Marquette really hurt.
 
#105      

FinallyMadeAnAccount

F
FinallyMadeAnAccount
ptgrd23 said:
I want a #2 seed. I think with some upsets and if we win the BTT we can do it. Only Gonzaga and AZ have easy conference tournament paths.

B12 Either Baylor or Kansas will lose.

SEC Either Kentucky or Auburn will lose.

Big East Either Providence or Villanova will lose

If we can win the BTT we can make an argument for a #1 seed but I am confident we will get a #2. Those early season losses to Cincinati and Marquette really hurt.
Click to expand...
??? Be realistic lol, we're listed at #4 almost everywhere. The highest we'll get is a #3 with maybe an outside shot at #2 if everything happens to fall our way.
 
#106      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
At this point, 2 #1 seeds are locks, in Gonzaga and Arizona (even if they lose tomorrow to Stanford/Arizona State, their overall profile is clear #1 seed and only 2 of the next 4 can win their conference tournaments).

The other two #1 seeds are about 90% likely to go to two of Baylor/Kansas/Auburn/Kentucky, with the others getting 2 seeds. There's an argument for Villanova if they win the BE tournament and someone unsuspecting wins the B12/SEC tournaments, and maybe Duke if you squint hard enough, but that's about it.

As the 2 seeds go, again, two of Baylor/Kansas/Auburn/Kentucky have those locked up. Duke is likely next in line, followed by Purdue/Villanova (or Wisconsin if you only think results matter). Beyond that, Tennessee is right there should either of the others falter, then a combination of Texas Tech, UCLA, Illinois, and Providence

A BTT run likely lands Illinois a 3 seed, with an outside shot at a 2 seed if havoc reigns elsewhere.
 
#107      

727ill

7
727ill
the juiceman cometh said:
People also immediately assume Gonzaga's conference schedule is 100% cupcakes. The WCC has 3 teams in the NET top 30. That's the same number as the Big East and 2 more than the ACC (just 1!!!).
Click to expand...

People here don't watch any college basketball outside of the B10. Saint Mary's would be a top-6 finisher if they played in the B10. San Francisco probably would be top-8.
 
#108      

GrayGhost77

GrayGhost77
Centennial, CO
GrayGhost77
Piotyr said:
No team has played a non-conference Quad 1 or Quad 2 since December. That's a bit of a silly argument against Gonzaga's schedule.

I feel like this argument crops up in every thread, with Gonzaga being clearly the best team statistically and guaranteed of the #1 overall seed, yet people continue to argue they need to move themselves to a stronger conference.

For what, exactly? To satisfy your personal biases? Their current situation limits them to...getting the #1 overall seed and appearing in 2 NCAA championships in the last 10 years. They are in no way hurting themselves.
Click to expand...
No way would one of the P5 conferences even take Gonzaga as a member. They don't even have a football team!
 
#110      

sinmyp1

S
sinmyp1
Mizzu won today, does that even help us? We need to win at least 1 so we can get a 3 seed
 
#112      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
I am more concerned about match up than seed. I think we struggle against a team that has a dominant big who can match up with Kofi and a tall athletic guard. Not many teams have that

If we play with energy and hustle we can beat anyone. We are a completely different team since mid season. Hawkins is a match up nightmare and if we get Grandson and BBV back we are a very deep team

The one similarity that this team has with other good teams is a variety of players can go off any night. This year every starter and Belo has won us games plus RJ BBV and Goode were instrumental in few games
 
#115      

Se Il Illini

Se Il Illini
Se Il Illini
Let me ask this question. Is not the seeding of the NCAA pretty much complete, before the championship game of the Big 10 tournament?
 
#116      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Se Il Illini said:
Let me ask this question. Is not the seeding of the NCAA pretty much complete, before the championship game of the Big 10 tournament?
Click to expand...
Largely yes. There are occasionally special cases for Sunday teams that would otherwise not be in the bracket, for which the committee will typically make two brackets so they are at the ready pending the result of the game. Sometimes teams in the BTT championship will be close enough where the committee could simply swap them in the bracket based on the winner.

Other than that, though, the bracket is basically complete by Sunday morning, since only 10 teams are playing by then.
 
#118      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
FinallyMadeAnAccount said:
??? Be realistic lol, we're listed at #4 almost everywhere. The highest we'll get is a #3 with maybe an outside shot at #2 if everything happens to fall our way.
Click to expand...
Agree a 1 is unrealistic, but we are as close to a 2 as we are to a 4, IMO, depending on BTT results. I put much more stock in the preview and what’s happened since, and there’s no logical argument that we’ve “lost” our 3-seed since then.
 
#119      

Rocky

Rocky
Rocky
Currently 1st 4 seed. Texas Tech, Tennessee, Villanova, and Wisconsin are teams we can catch. One more loss by each would be beautiful. UCLA and Providence are teams we need to stay ahead of. You cannot tell me the Big East and especially the PAC-12 are tougher conferences. We beat Purdue in the B1GT finals, and that's the 5th team. That would put us at the final 2 seed. Keep the faith and keep winning.
 
Last edited:
#122      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Wow, it just kind of hit me today that we really are not far off AT ALL from being on equal standing with Purdue, let alone Wisconsin, as far as seeding ... and they're both floated as a 2. If either one loses their first BTT game and we don't (i.e., we get another Quad 1 win while they do not), we would honestly maybe jump them ... the "losses column" became a lot more even when I wasn't noticing:

ILLINOIS
Record: 22-8
NET Ranking: #14
Strength of Schedule: #8
Quad 1 Wins: 6 (at #15 IOWA, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #21 WISC, at #31 MICH, at #38 MSU, at #43 IND)
Quad 2 Wins: 6
Quad 3 Losses: 0
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road/Neutral Record: TDB

PURDUE
Record: 25-6
NET Ranking: #13
Strength of Schedule: #10
Quad 1 Wins: 7 (vs. #6 NOVA in CT, at #14 ILL, vs. #14 ILL, at #15 IOWA, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #22 OSU, vs. #32 UNC in CT)
Quad 2 Wins: 5
Quad 3 Losses: 0
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road/Neutral Record: 9-5

WISCONSIN
Record: 24-6
NET Ranking: #21
Strength of Schedule: #16
Quad 1 Wins: 8 (vs. #5 HOU in Las Vegas, at #13 PUR, vs. #13 PUR, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #19 Saint Mary's in Las Vegas, vs. #22 OSU, at #38 MSU, at #43 IND)
Quad 2 Wins: 8
Quad 3 Losses: 2 (vs. #78 RUT, vs. #139 NEB)
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road/Neutral Record: 12-2

Wisconsin has us beat on wins, for sure, but they have two losses that are MUCH worse than anything on our resume. We also have a pretty significantly better NET and SOS ranking. Purdue has better wins and a slightly better NET ranking/record, but again ... that could be equalized in the next couple of days. I'm not predicting this to happen or anything, but let's say Wisconsin loses to Maryland (who beats MSU) tomorrow and Purdue gets upset by a "hot" Penn State team (lol), for sake of argument, and we beat Indiana/Michigan and then Iowa/Rutgers. How do you not consider us for the 2 at that point?
 
#123      

CubsIlliniFan

C
CubsIlliniFan
Piotyr said:
At this point, 2 #1 seeds are locks, in Gonzaga and Arizona (even if they lose tomorrow to Stanford/Arizona State, their overall profile is clear #1 seed and only 2 of the next 4 can win their conference tournaments).

The other two #1 seeds are about 90% likely to go to two of Baylor/Kansas/Auburn/Kentucky, with the others getting 2 seeds. There's an argument for Villanova if they win the BE tournament and someone unsuspecting wins the B12/SEC tournaments, and maybe Duke if you squint hard enough, but that's about it.

As the 2 seeds go, again, two of Baylor/Kansas/Auburn/Kentucky have those locked up. Duke is likely next in line, followed by Purdue/Villanova (or Wisconsin if you only think results matter). Beyond that, Tennessee is right there should either of the others falter, then a combination of Texas Tech, UCLA, Illinois, and Providence

A BTT run likely lands Illinois a 3 seed, with an outside shot at a 2 seed if havoc reigns elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Ok, lets put Gonzaga and Arizona as 1 locks. Another 1 will come from KU or Baylor, and the last UK and Auburn. That will leave 2 number 2’s left to fight for. Lets say the other two number 2’s comes from Texas Tech, Illinois, Purdue, Wisky, Duke, Nova and Providence. If Duke loses to Syracuse today and its a tight game so far, they Should fall off the two line but the committee would want to help Coach K as much as possible. So if Duke does lose, that could open up the Big Ten winner between ILL, Wisky and PU for a two and a battle between Tech, Duke and Nova if Tech and Nova win their tourneY for the last one. I do not see a path to a 1 seed but we could get a 2. Unless we fall apart, we will not get a 4 seed unless some craziness happens in other tourneys.
 
#124      

WhiteHorseWings

WhiteHorseWings
WhiteHorseWings
CubsIlliniFan said:
Ok, lets put Gonzaga and Arizona as 1 locks. Another 1 will come from KU or Baylor, and the last UK and Auburn. That will leave 2 number 2’s left to fight for. Lets say the other two number 2’s comes from Texas Tech, Illinois, Purdue, Wisky, Duke, Nova and Providence. If Duke loses to Syracuse today and its a tight game so far, they Should fall off the two line but the committee would want to help Coach K as much as possible. So if Duke does lose, that could open up the Big Ten winner between ILL, Wisky and PU for a two and a battle between Tech, Duke and Nova if Tech and Nova win their tourneY for the last one. I do not see a path to a 1 seed but we could get a 2. Unless we fall apart, we will not get a 4 seed unless some craziness happens in other tourneys.
Click to expand...
Texas Tech and Providence are so colossally overrated in my opinion, irrespective of the stat heads who will show me all of the newest, en vogue measures that Texas Tech’s fugly game shows.
 
#125      

CubsIlliniFan

C
CubsIlliniFan
WhiteHorseWings said:
Texas Tech and Providence are so colossally overrated in my opinion, irrespective of the stat heads who will show me all of the newest, en vogue measures that Texas Tech’s fugly game shows.
Click to expand...
I agree but if Tech beats both KU and Baylor, that should get them to the 2 line as the Committee will award the winner of the tourney a higher seed. I am not a Tech fan bit if they can win it, they might get a 2. I truly do not see a path for Providence. The best they can do is a three seed. I think the B1G can put the three top teams a 2, 3 and 4 seed. UCLA should get a 4 seed and Tennessee could also be a 4 seed. BTW, Duke is getting beat and as much as I do not like Cuse, it would be fun to see Coach K and Duke get beat.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.