Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#76      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
727ill said:
Well Lunardi had us as a 7 earlier so I guess he overestimated us as well. This fan base is going to lose their mind if we get an 8/9 seed.
Click to expand...
Lol yeah, but that's just like..what we do.

I honestly haven't looked at Lunardi's bracket, so maybe I shouldnt even comment on it. But I'm guessing the drop has as much to do with what other teams did to move ahead of us as it does with what we did or didn't do.
 
#77      

LvilleILL

LvilleILL
LvilleILL
21ChampaignSt said:
Lol yeah, but that's just like..what we do.

I honestly haven't looked at Lunardi's bracket, so maybe I shouldnt even comment on it. But I'm guessing the drop has as much to do with what other teams did to move ahead of us as it does with what we did or didn't do.
Click to expand...
Well he has Iowa ahead of us who just lost two games by a combined 40 points. Shows the credibility there
 
#78      

727ill

7
727ill
LvilleILL said:
Well he has Iowa ahead of us who just lost two games by a combined 40 points. Shows the credibility there
Click to expand...

Funny enough, I wouldn't want to trade places w/ Iowa in the current updated bracket Lunardi has. He has Iowa as an 8 in Birmingham to then play Alabama. Talk about a shafting.
 
#79      

IlliniInTexas

I
IlliniInTexas
727ill said:
Really?? That doesn't make sense given his previous update. We were at a 7 I believe before the Indiana game. No way a road quad 1 loss drops you two seed lines.
Click to expand...
Kind of seems like he was on a publishing deadline? Saw our halftime score, pro formaed that we were going to get blown out, and dropped us 2 seed lines. Doesn’t make a lot of sense otherwise.

His brackets publish overnight, and he (like me) is getting older and probably wants to be in bed by 10 pm on school nights :)
 
#80      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
21ChampaignSt said:
I think we tend to overestimate our resume. Our best wins in the last 80 days are home games against Rutgers and Northwestern, both q2. Nationally, we just aren't going to get much love. Finishing the season with no more than 1 loss and avoid getting bounced in the first round of the BTT and I'm guessing that'll be enough to keep us in the 5-7 range.

Edit: I guess technically the Wisconsin road game would be our best win of the last 80 days but eh..
Click to expand...
Minor nitpick, but the Committee VERY famously does not consider the timing of a win. Our Texas and UCLA wins are as valuable today as they were then, we can’t help when we play each team.
 
#83      

Homecoming 2019

Homecoming 2019
Chicago
Homecoming 2019
Interesting thing I noticed while searching for the teams with the most Q1 wins in college basketball. The only 4 teams that don't count as a Q1 at home are all from the B1G. Seems like B1G play style doesn't gel with the advanced metrics and is costing the leagues overall resume.
1677256525657.png
 
#84      

727ill

7
727ill
Homecoming 2019 said:
Interesting thing I noticed while searching for the teams with the most Q1 wins in college basketball. The only 4 teams that don't count as a Q1 at home are all from the B1G. Seems like B1G play style doesn't gel with the advanced metrics and is costing the leagues overall resume.
View attachment 23649
Click to expand...

The propensity for losing teams to cut a deficit under 10 in the final seconds also hurts.
 
#85      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
Jerry Palm has us as an 8. Removing ourselves from the euphoria of last night, our resume really is middle of the road. We have two VERY nice wins early in the year. After that, we we no bad losses, but the some of the losses that we do have...we got crushed. Not sure that plays into it? In any event, we are one of what, six teams in the conference with 7 losses and we've lost to Iowa, Indiana(2) Maryland and Penn State(2) who's on the bubble. Winning 2 of the next 3 would be nice.
 
#87      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
Point-Illinois said:
I’m very disappointed in Rutgers.

Michigan is not good, and it was at Rutgers. They better rattle off a win or two to get back in the top 30. They also could have squashed UM’s bubble dreams.

For shame Rutgers, for shame!
Click to expand...

I have to wonder if losing Mowat Mag is a bigger deal for Rutgers than the untrained eye might notice. He was their defensive stopper. On paper, we could afford to lose Sencire Harris, but in reality…
 
#88      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
RabidDawgClassic said:
I have to wonder if losing Mowat Mag is a bigger deal for Rutgers than the untrained eye might notice. He was their defensive stopper. On paper, we could afford to lose Sencire Harris, but in reality…
Click to expand...
Without a doubt, it is a huge impact. Rutgers was winning games because of defense. They simply don't have firepower to win shootout style games. Add in this injury, and they will struggle. Unless something changes, they will be one and done in the tournament...unless they run into an offensively challenged team.

Really all about match-ups in March, but right now none are favorable for them.
 
#89      

727ill

7
727ill
The
RabidDawgClassic said:
I have to wonder if losing Mowat Mag is a bigger deal for Rutgers than the untrained eye might notice. He was their defensive stopper. On paper, we could afford to lose Sencire Harris, but in reality…
Click to expand...
They have also been without Caleb McConnell for several games.
 
#92      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Little update on where we stand and what's in front of us:

Record: 19-9
NET Ranking: #30 (theoretically a 7 seed)
SOS Ranking: #30
Road Record: 3-5
Neutral Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-7
vs. Quad 2: 6-2
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

We have these games upcoming:
at #71 Ohio State (Quad 1 for now ... Quad 2 if they go below 75)
vs. #53 Michigan (Quad 2 no matter what)
at #5 Purdue (Quad 1 no matter what)

So, we have TWO opportunities at Quad 1 wins and one opportunity at a Quad 2 win, as of this morning - and importantly, no opportunities for bad losses. I do feel many here and some of the lazier Bracketologists are underselling how important our complete lack of bad losses (in the Committee's eyes) is. There are TEN teams ahead of us in the NET rankings with at least one Quad 3 loss.

A few notes on teams we've played
(1) ROOT FOR WISCONSIN! They are back at #70, providing us with both a Quad 1 and a Quad 2 win. We absolutely need them in the top 75. They finish with Michigan on the road, Purdue at home and Minnesota on the road. Going 1-2 with the one win being Minny likely drops them out of the top 75 ... we need them to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, assuming they can't knock off Purdue.

(2) ROOT FOR SPARTY! I have given up hope on Rutgers from what I have seen, but MSU is back at #35 in the NET rankings and they're playing pretty well. They finish with Iowa on the road, Nebraska on the road and Ohio State at home. Road games are tough, but they COULD go 3-0 and get us another Quad 1 win back if they sneak into the top 30.

(3) We absolutely need to win in Columbus. At worst, that gives us our seventh Quad 2 win - that's more than TWENTY FOUR of the teams above us in the NET rankings right now. At best, it would be our fourth Quad 1 win if OSU could upset Maryland at home and stay top 75. With the way OSU is skidding, we cannot afford to be their medicine.

(4) Okay, here's the long shot ... if by some miracle we could play like we did in the second half vs. Northwestern for the rest of the season, we could put all of this resume worrying to bed and have a fighter's chance at catching Purdue on an off night at Mackey. If we finish 3-0 and win one in the BTT, we'd be eyeing a really good seed. Even if we beat OSU and Michigan, lose to Purdue and go 1-1 in the BTT (let's assume a Quad 2 win and a Quad 1 loss?), we'd be looking at this as of today:

Record: 22-11
NET Ranking: #25-30
SOS Ranking: #25-30
Road Record: 4-5
Neutral Record: 3-3
vs. Quad 1: 4-9
vs. Quad 2: 8-2
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

It's not about "how good our resume is" ... it's about "how good our resume is compared to the absolute shltshow that is college basketball this year. And that's actually a pretty damn good resume.
 
#95      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
I feel like Lunardi's bracket released at 9 am ET this morning was put together at halftime when Illinois vs. Northwestern was looking like a Loss. We have no business falling to a 9 when the only thing we've done since the last update is beat a quality team (that he has as a 6...)

Who drops 2 full slots when all they do is beat a ranked team, lol. It defies all logic. We're deep towards the end of Conference Play, so nothing that happens is going to have a drastic effect on our Strength of Schedule.

I really just don't think there's any other explanation, the model he wrote in for us assumed a Loss, and then it wasn't corrected when that game turned into a win.
 
Last edited:
#97      

Homecoming 2019

Homecoming 2019
Chicago
Homecoming 2019
One Man Fast Break said:
I feel like Lunardi's bracket released at 9 am ET this morning was put together at halftime when Illinois vs. Northwestern was looking like a Loss. We have no business falling to a 9 when the only thing we've done since the last update is beat a quality team (that he has as a 6...)

Who drops 2 full slots when all they do is beat a ranked team, lol. It defies all logic. We're deep towards the end of Conference Play, so nothing that happens is going to have a drastic effect on our Strength of Schedule.

I really just don't think there's any other explanation, the model he wrote in for us assumed a Loss, and then it wasn't corrected when that game turned into a win.
Click to expand...
We really shouldn't look at any bracketologists who's employer has big money on the line to get a particular conferences teams into the tourney.
 
#99      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
Homecoming 2019 said:
We really shouldn't look at any bracketologists who's employer has big money on the line to get a particular conferences teams into the tourney.
Click to expand...

Lunardi does a fine job of nailing the teams that make the tournament. His goal is to be as close to the actual bracket as possible.
 
#100      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
FreshlySqueezed said:
Lunardi does a fine job of nailing the teams that make the tournament. His goal is to be as close to the actual bracket as possible.
Click to expand...
Considering that it is his primary role at ESPN, he should be fairly accurate. That is why it is so puzzling that he completely botched the projection, especially this late in the season.

There was a PAC 12 game on ESPN a couple weeks ago where Bill Walton was bashing Lunardi endlessly because he had Oregon as out of the field. It was Comedy Central trying to hear a voice of reason from the lead play by play announcer. Sometimes wonder how Walton is still employed by ESPN and PAC 12 Network.

I think Lunardi does a fairly good job overall, but he seems to get ridiculed an awful lot.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.