Chicago Cubs 2016 Season

#602      

IntenselyOrange

I
IntenselyOrange
champaignchris said:
I'm not going to say I hate the deal. I don't love it either.

We're giving up:

1. A 19 year old A-ball prospect who is a very good prospect, but not as good a prospect as the two middle infielders who are already here and producing. Torres may be good, but there's probably a better than 50% chance that he won't be as good as either Russel or Baez.
2. A long reliever/swing man that has been awful this year. The likelihood of Warren contributing anything meaningful for the remainder of this season is slim. While he could fix whatever is wrong with him and be a contributor over the next couple years, he's the type of player that can be replaced relatively easily and cheaply.
3. McKinney has turned into a corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power. He looks like he may never be more than a fifth outfielder at best, and maybe not even that as it looks like he can't play center field anymore.
4. The fourth guy whose name I've already forgotten is a nobody.

In other words, the Cubs haven't given up anybody who is likely to be a major contributor to a World Series run at any point over the next 3 or 4 years, while gaining a guy who absolutely makes them better right now.

The problems:

1. He doesn't make them THAT much better - maybe 2 more games in the standings and maybe 3 runs saved over an entire playoff run - and we all would have wanted more tangible immediate impact or the prospect of a long-term impact in return for this package.
2. He simply isn't a likable guy you want to root for.

I guess one point worth making is that Chapman would have quite likely been one of the Cubs' top free agent targets, and this trade makes it such that if you extend him now or after the season the Cubs would not lose a compensatory draft pick. Whereas if the Cubs had not made the trade and signed him as a free agent, they likely would lose the draft pick. So if the Cubs do later extend Chapman you could arguably add that first round draft pick to the Cubs side of the ledger in evaluating the trade.
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I'm a White Sox fan and not that locked into the Cubs. I'd be lying if I said I knew what they have in the bullpen. But, for a team like the Cubs I like this deal in general. You gave up a 19 year-old with a lot of upside. But that's all it is - upside. He's so far away, that you give him up for a player that you think can put you over the top when you are already this good. You don't buy Chapman to make the playoffs, you buy him to win in the playoffs.

Chapman is a difference maker. If your in a tough situation in the postseason, say runners on 2 and 3 with nobody out and a 1 run lead, Chapman is the type of guy you want. He can get out of that situation regardless of who is at the plate.

I love trades like this when it's an already stacked team like the cubs. Some will say, oh it's only an extra win. But when you have a team like the Cubs you trade for situational players. Chapman fills a big situation that will likely come up.
 
#604      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
champaignchris said:
the Cubs haven't given up anybody who is likely to be a major contributor to a World Series run at any point over the next 3 or 4 years
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Totally disagree, in this way:

Andrew Cashner, Scott Feldman, Luis Valbuena and Ryan Dempster are all major contributors of the current Cubs run, because of what they were able to bring in return in trades.

The package surrendered for Chapman is worth way, way more than the 1-ish WAR we can expect in return. The opportunity cost of those resources is enormous.

Torres and McKinney could have been pieces in a Jose Quintana-type deal in the offseason to replace Jason Hammel. Now it will unquestionably take current MLB pieces to get that kind of move done.
 
#606      

IntenselyOrange

I
IntenselyOrange
Second and Chalmers said:
Torres and McKinney could have been pieces in a Jose Quintana-type deal in the offseason to replace Jason Hammel. Now it will unquestionably take current MLB pieces to get that kind of move done.
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No. It would take a lot more to get Quintana. As poorly and my team's management is, there is no way that that would be even close to enough to get Quintana. Torres could not be the best player in a deal for Quintana in my opinion.
 
#607      

CUWPC

C
Geneva, IL
CUWPC
Ask Kansas City how a bullpen like this works. The game has now been shortened to 6 innings. Strop, Rondon and Chapman will be a nightmare. I would do closer by committee based on how the 8th and 9th shape up
 
#608      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Second and Chalmers said:
Totally disagree, in this way:

Andrew Cashner, Scott Feldman, Luis Valbuena and Ryan Dempster are all major contributors of the current Cubs run, because of what they were able to bring in return in trades.

The package surrendered for Chapman is worth way, way more than the 1-ish WAR we can expect in return. The opportunity cost of those resources is enormous.

Torres and McKinney could have been pieces in a Jose Quintana-type deal in the offseason to replace Jason Hammel. Now it will unquestionably take current MLB pieces to get that kind of move done.
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I understand what you're saying and I don't disagree with you so much as I have faith that Hoyer and Epstein know what they're doing.

They know better than we do that they've got a two-year window with this starting pitching staff and that there is literally no one in next year's free agency class that will be of any help come 2018 when Arrieta, Lackey, and Hammel are all free agents and Lester turns 87 years old (or whatever).

I have to assume they have a plan in which someone other than Hendricks is on the starting pitching staff after 2017. I don't know how they get there from here, but I assume they do.

It certainly helps that every position player that matters other than Fowler is locked up for the next five years or so.
 
#609      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
IntenselyOrange said:
No. It would take a lot more to get Quintana. As poorly and my team's management is, there is no way that that would be even close to enough to get Quintana. Torres could not be the best player in a deal for Quintana in my opinion.
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Not saying those two would do it, just that they, especially Torres, could be key cogs in the deal. Cogs are not unlimited in the Cubs farm system, especially now that their days of picking at the top of the draft are over.
 
#610      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
champaignchris said:
I understand what you're saying and I don't disagree with you so much as I have faith that Hoyer and Epstein know what they're doing.

They know better than we do that they've got a two-year window with this starting pitching staff and that there is literally no one in next year's free agency class that will be of any help come 2018 when Arrieta, Lackey, and Hammel are all free agents and Lester turns 87 years old (or whatever).

I have to assume they have a plan in which someone other than Hendricks is on the starting pitching staff after 2017. I don't know how they get there from here, but I assume they do.

It certainly helps that every position player that matters other than Fowler is locked up for the next five years or so.
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Trust but verify.

It wasn't blind faith in the Red Sox miracle, nor seeing the team suddenly win a ton of games last year that made Theo like my favorite person in the world. The three years of work that went into that were a symphony of rebuilding as they happened. Move after move after move just adding little bits of marginal value, brick by brick.

And they have said publicly, time and time again that building long term success is the goal because no matter how dominant a single season team you can build, the playoffs are a Russian Roulette crapshoot. They clearly get it. So why this move that barely budges the needle of their chances to win the WS?

I'm just bummed out by this whole thing.
 
#611      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
Second and Chalmers said:
So why this move that barely budges the needle of their chances to win the WS?

I'm just bummed out by this whole thing.
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I think you're missing the overall effect this move has on the pitching staff. With innings 7 (Strop / Edwards), 8 (Rondon) and 9 (Chapman) locked down, our starters don't need to go deep into games. Saving excess innings on Arrieta and crew should allow them to stay strong through a tough season & playoff run.
 
#612      

Juice

Juice
Juice
CLEARWATERDAN said:
I hope it works out with Heyward. With his swing, I have my doubts. I forgot to mention Edwin Jackson.
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Must be real hard for people to realize that Heyward wasn't given 180 mil for his bat... common sense is rare around here.

Outfield defense was a major weakness of this team last year and Heyward literally takes runs away from the other team.
 
#614      

Deleted member 526137

D
Guest
Deleted member 526137
Juice said:
Must be real hard for people to realize that Heyward wasn't given 180 mil for his bat... common sense is rare around here.

Outfield defense was a major weakness of this team last year and Heyward literally takes runs away from the other team.
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That's a lot of money for just elite defense.
 
#617      

South Farms

S
near Ogden & Rt 83
South Farms
IntenselyOrange said:
I'm a White Sox fan and not that locked into the Cubs. I'd be lying if I said I knew what they have in the bullpen. But, for a team like the Cubs I like this deal in general. You gave up a 19 year-old with a lot of upside. But that's all it is - upside. He's so far away, that you give him up for a player that you think can put you over the top when you are already this good. You don't buy Chapman to make the playoffs, you buy him to win in the playoffs.

Chapman is a difference maker. If your in a tough situation in the postseason, say runners on 2 and 3 with nobody out and a 1 run lead, Chapman is the type of guy you want. He can get out of that situation regardless of who is at the plate.

I love trades like this when it's an already stacked team like the cubs. Some will say, oh it's only an extra win. But when you have a team like the Cubs you trade for situational players. Chapman fills a big situation that will likely come up.
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an extra win in the playoffs can be the difference between going home or continuing on to the next round

imo, this trade was a no brainer
 
#619      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
Us Cub fans have been spoiled by recent prospects which have, for the most part have, or already look to be panning out (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Hendricks, Contreras, etc...)

Not that I don't think Torres has great potential, but fanbases tend to overrate their own prospects (not unlike college basketball recruiting).

Cubs examples over the past 10 years: Felix Pie (#29, 2006), Donald Veal (#26, 2007), Josh Vitters (#31, 2010), Brett Jackson (#44, 2012).

Who the heck is Donald Veal?
 
#620      

ChiCityHoops34

C
DeKalb IL
ChiCityHoops34
I love his effort but I have a strong feeling Baez is going to get too cute and cost us an important run come October. I hope I'm wrong.
 
#624      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
ChiCityHoops34 said:
I love his effort but I have a strong feeling Baez is going to get too cute and cost us an important run come October. I hope I'm wrong.
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I can see it.

It resulted in a run, but Baez stealing third in the 9th down 2 with 0 out was a risk not worth taking.

EDIT: Ditto for Bryant trying to stretch his triple into a double. :tsk: :mad:

EDIT #2: Tie game! (Should be 1st & 2nd, 0 out)
 
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