Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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I'd say that this has me most concerned. We got screwed getting stuck playing Houston, in Houston, but outside of that.....a Penn, VCU(with an injury to one of their top guards in the first 5 mins of the game) and Iowa road to the Final Four was as perfect as it gets. That said, karma finally worked in our favor. It doesn't happen often, but good fortune fell upon us and our fandom deserved it.
Drej and Tomi woke up after a season long nap during the tournament. We lost 4 of 6 in February, blew TWO 15 point leads vs Wisconsin because we couldn't contain their guards, blew a 20 point lead vs UCLA for the same reason, blew a game at MSU for the same reason and our bigs got manhandled vs Michigan, but
The recency bias of the tournament has everyone thinking top 5.
It's hard to forget February, the beginning of March, struggles by Drej, Tomi and Z(shooting at the end of the year), not returning an All American/Lottery pick and not have reservations of the expectations.
Most people take recency bias into consideration. Look at Purdue. Talk about a complete dud and utter disappointment of a season, but it was remedied by a BTT and NCAAT run.
Now, we're in totally uncharted waters for us as a fanbase. Our recruiting/retention was off the charts, our roster is locked and loaded and we're coming off of this high of a Final Four, so there's no coach bashing. In the absence of that, we're (some are) relegated to complaining about who our 9th man is, why Rodgers couldn't have been kept, etc. Picking holes will always be a major part of fandom.... especially 5 months before the season is even a consideration.
Ultimately, I do have the same concerns as you with regards to us maxing out as a good, solid team(Sweet 16 ceiling) vs a truly elite(National Championship) ceiling.
Last season was an absolute roller coaster. Will we be the team who was locked in on defense and didn't get tortured by toughness and quick guards(NCAAT) or the team that couldn't guard a lamppost?
With our schedule, we'll find out early. The good news is that we'll be close to a finished product and will be playing teams that are introducing new talent and taking time to develop/build chemistry. We could/should get some major resume builders early. The problem is that it's also the bad news. Again, this is exactly what Purdue took advantage of last year. They came out and steamrolled some heavy hitters early, but then the league caught up. We shall see.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Yep + that dominant win over Houston on its front porch will stick with me for a long time.
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
Torvik has their #12 and #22 freshmen at 29%/15% of minutes (8th/9th men). Their #116 freshman gets 0 minutes.
Torvik has our #17, #47, and #104 freshmen at 76%/30%/16% of minutes (2nd/8th/9th men).
Maybe the sell was that Sarr's playing time is vulnerable and Cayden and Foster aren't superstars either, but those two freshman came despite a logjam.
Did you see how UCONN beat Duke? Given how that was set up at the end, they lose that game 9,999 times out of 10,000. It took literally the perfect set of the exact circumstances, with the exact amount of time left required, with the dominoes falling with absolutely no different of an order and ended with a kid splashing a 30 footer. MSU also had them by the shorties the game before. Let's not pretend that they just waltzed their way to the Final Four. They were lucky AF. Going back further, St. John's steamrolled them in the Big East final.
UNC coughed up a 20 point lead to VCU, which is absurd. We played that VCU team, which was a good one, don't get me wrong, but they lost one of their top guards/scorers, in the first 5 minutes of the game. Any way you look at round 2, we were extraordinarily fortunate.
Houston was a phenomenal win. That was an absolutely crummy part of the draw. It was probably the worst/unfair draw in the tournament. It was our best game of the season. We flat out took care of business.
I'm sorry, but Iowa was a stroke of pure fortune. Florida earned that result by completing ignoring Iowa for 28 minutes. Iowa got up 13, Florida woke up and outscored them by 17 points in 8 minutes and took a lead, but by that point, it's a toss up. They felt the need to miss 3 of 4 free throws in the last 40 seconds, left the door open and Iowa came up with a shot from a guy like Figueroa. Florida earned that completely moronic outcome because, like you said, they basically got a home game, felt they could turn it on and off at any time(they did) and took a W for granted. We caught a major break. A fully focused Florida had the size and athleticism to play with Michigan. They just gagged and that's on the coach.
All of that said, you should NEVER apologize for good fortune. We beat the teams that were on the schedule and that's a fact. Never, ever apologize for raising banners. We took care of business in four straight games.
To say that we weren't fortunate is silly however. We've been on the other side of the coin where we got a WTF is this situation. Nobody apologized to us for that. It is ok to recognize that we were fortunate. Nobody is saying that we wouldn't have beaten UNC or Florida, but we are saying that an unfortunate VCU injury and playing Iowa was the overwhelmingly preferred path.
I would agree more or less with his rankings of 1-10. Texas and Vanderbilt maybe a bit too high.
while we might get it, we wont need that sort of offensive production from our guards. you'll see production across the board and wherever the competition allows. one night the posts score 25, another Mirk backs down for 18. as ive said before, if we guard, (and avoid nut punches) we'll be very, very hard to beat.
Big Jack
- Decatur
If any of you are BB season tickets experts please dm me. I skipped last seasons reshape and going to jump back in this season. I am not really sure i understand this whole process now. Ticket guy at box office wasn't a lot of help or he was only trying to get a quick buck. Thanks
Insane to me more people don’t have Duke #1. Maybe folks are just bored with blue bloods (which I’d understand).
If things go as planned, that’s the most ridiculous roster since Kentucky 10 years ago.
or maybe Florida wasn't that good, played in the weak SEC which I said multiple times last season and we would have beaten them had we played them. Or Nebraska beats them being that they beat Vanderbilt which blew Florida the week before. Florida benefitted from playing in a weak conference.
Of the seven sportsbooks listed by VegasInsider, Florida/Duke are #1/#2 in six and are tied at #1 in the other, so it is at least a very common opinion
I feel like one of the more crazy stories is that of this guy:
Sebastian Wilkins, Brewster Academy Bobcats, Power Forward
Sebastian Wilkins is a 6-8, 215-pound Forward from Groton, MA.
247sports.com
He was a top 35 recruit who redshirted this past season because he wouldn’t get playing time. Think about that: a top 35 recruit coming to Illinois, or anywhere not named Duke, and redshirting.
Then, to make matters even more absurd, he chose to come back this season, and will be entering the year as the presumed 11th man. Literally, the 11th man.
And if it isn’t him, then it’ll be one of their top 15 recruits — Rippey, Howard, or Williams. Or 16 year old Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who’s being labeled as one of the most high-ceiling big men for the next few years. Or Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski, who’d start on like 90% of rosters.
Plus, they landed a go-to scorer in Blackwell from the portal. And Boozer, Foster, Sarr, Ngomba all returned.
How on earth do you put together that much talent on one college basketball team?
boozer led their team in every stat last year. and I don't see anyone returning that can fill that spot or that role without a big jump. he did a lot of lifting for them. the new guys are new so we will have to see. that's why I think top 5 is just fine for them
Lol. Do your research. This roster won't be no more talented than the last 2 Duke rosters. The question will be will this 26-27 roster have a Flagg or Boozer to lead them. I don't see it. The ACC is so weak anyway Duke will still win the conference. This Duke team could remind you of the 20-21 Duke team that didn't make the NCAA TOURNAMENT!!
This, and I also feel Blackwell got massively overrated and overhyped. Plus shooter, good but not exceptional 2nd and 3rd level scorer, average defender, below average playmaker. 2nd best player on… Wisconsin?
I don't see the Houston hype. They lost Flemings, Sharp, and Uzan plus Cenac.
They have a solid center recruit in diafne and a solid transfer class but I don't see the #3 team in the country(I'm not huge Thomas fan).
Duke is absolutely loaded, Florida is loaded on the interior but I'm not sold on their guards(I don't think Aberdeen will get eligibility).
The team I've been most impressed by in the portal has been Tennessee. Basically an entirely new team but they have gotten some guys.
I agree. Blackwell has never been the #1 option. Wisconsin brought in 2 transfer guards the last 2 years and they both were 1st team all big 10. Duke definitely overpaid for a guy that will compete with 3 other guards on their roster.
That's pretty crazy on your part man to say we are not a top 5 team starting out with everyone we have coming back from a final 4 team along with a very good freshman class coming in. I do agree we could use some more depth at the 4/5.
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Kinda like Scottie Pippins success while playing along with Jordan. After Jordan retired they found out Pippin was a complimentary piece and not the guy to build your team around.
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