Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#401      
Fly Illini Fly!
sulli said:
I hope so. I think this team as it stands will be good. Doesn't seem like a top 5 team to me unless we have another very positive surprise. Maybe not as drastic a surprise as Wagler but someone has to be much better than advertised. Especially given that the FF run was likely at least a mild overperformance last year / a good draw.
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seems like we'll start the season as exactly that.
 
#403      
mysterio2525
wc_illini said:
Last I remember, Torvik had us around #12, but I didn't pay much attention since rosters were in flux- does anyone know what changed since then? Did he just put Andrej on our roster?
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here is what I am seeing now. up to#4 but not sure if this is fully updated. it does have andrej on the roster


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#405      
Fighter of the Nightman
sulli said:
I hope so. I think this team as it stands will be good. Doesn't seem like a top 5 team to me unless we have another very positive surprise. Maybe not as drastic a surprise as Wagler but someone has to be much better than advertised. Especially given that the FF run was likely at least a mild overperformance last year / a good draw.
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I actually think our draw was SUPER underrated ... it pretty much rests on (A) the assumption going into the Tournament that UConn was the most overrated top seed and (B) that Iowa wasn't actually that good so we got lucky to play them. Considering how UConn just continued to beat everyone in their path until they finally fell to a (possibly historically) great Michigan team and how Iowa both knocked off one of the hottest #1 seeds in Florida in what was virtually a Gators home game and MORE than passed the eye test late in the season ... I would argue we actually played three teams playing REALLY good basketball during the Houston/Iowa/UConn stretch.
 
#407      
ChiefGritty
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I actually think our draw was SUPER underrated ... it pretty much rests on (A) the assumption going into the Tournament that UConn was the most overrated top seed and (B) that Iowa wasn't actually that good so we got lucky to play them. Considering how UConn just continued to beat everyone in their path until they finally fell to a (possibly historically) great Michigan team and how Iowa both knocked off one of the hottest #1 seeds in Florida in what was virtually a Gators home game and MORE than passed the eye test late in the season ... I would argue we actually played three teams playing REALLY good basketball during the Houston/Iowa/UConn stretch.
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Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
 
#408      
mysterio2525
NarrowJ said:
Having Duke so far ahead of everyone... #1 defense, #1 offense... can't wait for the season to start so I can see that not actually happen
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I am very curious if this is an aspect of aggregation vs rotation players. duke is extremely deep so wondering if when they cut their rotation to 8 or 9 people. usage I'm sure will change a lot for them
 
#409      
Fly Illini Fly!
ChiefGritty said:
Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
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Here’s the truth about this.

Only 107 out of 160 all time 1seeds have made the elite 8.

That means:

1 - (160/160 - 53/160) ^ 4

1 - (0.66875) ^ 4

1 - 0.2000

80% probability that a 1seed in a given tournament will not make the Elite 8. What happened wasn’t that abnormal; you just have to be in the correct bracket.
 
#414      
wc_illini
mysterio2525 said:
I am very curious if this is an aspect of aggregation vs rotation players. duke is extremely deep so wondering if when they cut their rotation to 8 or 9 people. usage I'm sure will change a lot for them
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Torvik has their #12 and #22 freshmen at 29%/15% of minutes (8th/9th men). Their #116 freshman gets 0 minutes.
Torvik has our #17, #47, and #104 freshmen at 76%/30%/16% of minutes (2nd/8th/9th men).

Maybe the sell was that Sarr's playing time is vulnerable and Cayden and Foster aren't superstars either, but those two freshman came despite a logjam.
 
#416      
illiniwil
Det_Illini_fan said:
I definitely think the statistical output of Vaaks-Coleman can outperform them, though I don’t think I’ll be shocked either way if they do or don’t. Both look very strong offensively and it wouldn’t be crazy to see them achieve a greater output. Defense I think has only been the biggest question mark, but I feel better about teaching someone defense than teaching them how to hit a contested shot. I also think there’s more to a being a great player than just what translates to the stat sheet; so don’t take this all to mean I believe the two will pass or eclipse two of our more memorable players in recent years. If they do? Excellent! We will truly be spoiled then to go back to back with stellar lottery pick freshmen.
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while we might get it, we wont need that sort of offensive production from our guards. you'll see production across the board and wherever the competition allows. one night the posts score 25, another Mirk backs down for 18. as ive said before, if we guard, (and avoid nut punches) we'll be very, very hard to beat.
 
#418      
fatboyslim
ChiefGritty said:
Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
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or maybe Florida wasn't that good, played in the weak SEC which I said multiple times last season and we would have beaten them had we played them. Or Nebraska beats them being that they beat Vanderbilt which blew Florida the week before. Florida benefitted from playing in a weak conference.
 
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