Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#401      
I hope so. I think this team as it stands will be good. Doesn't seem like a top 5 team to me unless we have another very positive surprise. Maybe not as drastic a surprise as Wagler but someone has to be much better than advertised. Especially given that the FF run was likely at least a mild overperformance last year / a good draw.
seems like we'll start the season as exactly that.
 
#403      
Last I remember, Torvik had us around #12, but I didn't pay much attention since rosters were in flux- does anyone know what changed since then? Did he just put Andrej on our roster?
here is what I am seeing now. up to#4 but not sure if this is fully updated. it does have andrej on the roster


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#405      
I hope so. I think this team as it stands will be good. Doesn't seem like a top 5 team to me unless we have another very positive surprise. Maybe not as drastic a surprise as Wagler but someone has to be much better than advertised. Especially given that the FF run was likely at least a mild overperformance last year / a good draw.
I actually think our draw was SUPER underrated ... it pretty much rests on (A) the assumption going into the Tournament that UConn was the most overrated top seed and (B) that Iowa wasn't actually that good so we got lucky to play them. Considering how UConn just continued to beat everyone in their path until they finally fell to a (possibly historically) great Michigan team and how Iowa both knocked off one of the hottest #1 seeds in Florida in what was virtually a Gators home game and MORE than passed the eye test late in the season ... I would argue we actually played three teams playing REALLY good basketball during the Houston/Iowa/UConn stretch.
 
#407      
I actually think our draw was SUPER underrated ... it pretty much rests on (A) the assumption going into the Tournament that UConn was the most overrated top seed and (B) that Iowa wasn't actually that good so we got lucky to play them. Considering how UConn just continued to beat everyone in their path until they finally fell to a (possibly historically) great Michigan team and how Iowa both knocked off one of the hottest #1 seeds in Florida in what was virtually a Gators home game and MORE than passed the eye test late in the season ... I would argue we actually played three teams playing REALLY good basketball during the Houston/Iowa/UConn stretch.
Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
 
#408      
Having Duke so far ahead of everyone... #1 defense, #1 offense... can't wait for the season to start so I can see that not actually happen
I am very curious if this is an aspect of aggregation vs rotation players. duke is extremely deep so wondering if when they cut their rotation to 8 or 9 people. usage I'm sure will change a lot for them
 
#409      
Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
Here’s the truth about this.

Only 107 out of 160 all time 1seeds have made the elite 8.

That means:

1 - (160/160 - 53/160) ^ 4

1 - (0.66875) ^ 4

1 - 0.2000

80% probability that a 1seed in a given tournament will not make the Elite 8. What happened wasn’t that abnormal; you just have to be in the correct bracket.
 
#414      
I am very curious if this is an aspect of aggregation vs rotation players. duke is extremely deep so wondering if when they cut their rotation to 8 or 9 people. usage I'm sure will change a lot for them
Torvik has their #12 and #22 freshmen at 29%/15% of minutes (8th/9th men). Their #116 freshman gets 0 minutes.
Torvik has our #17, #47, and #104 freshmen at 76%/30%/16% of minutes (2nd/8th/9th men).

Maybe the sell was that Sarr's playing time is vulnerable and Cayden and Foster aren't superstars either, but those two freshman came despite a logjam.
 
#416      
I definitely think the statistical output of Vaaks-Coleman can outperform them, though I don’t think I’ll be shocked either way if they do or don’t. Both look very strong offensively and it wouldn’t be crazy to see them achieve a greater output. Defense I think has only been the biggest question mark, but I feel better about teaching someone defense than teaching them how to hit a contested shot. I also think there’s more to a being a great player than just what translates to the stat sheet; so don’t take this all to mean I believe the two will pass or eclipse two of our more memorable players in recent years. If they do? Excellent! We will truly be spoiled then to go back to back with stellar lottery pick freshmen.
while we might get it, we wont need that sort of offensive production from our guards. you'll see production across the board and wherever the competition allows. one night the posts score 25, another Mirk backs down for 18. as ive said before, if we guard, (and avoid nut punches) we'll be very, very hard to beat.
 
#418      
Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
or maybe Florida wasn't that good, played in the weak SEC which I said multiple times last season and we would have beaten them had we played them. Or Nebraska beats them being that they beat Vanderbilt which blew Florida the week before. Florida benefitted from playing in a weak conference.
 
#419      
Insane to me more people don’t have Duke #1. Maybe folks are just bored with blue bloods (which I’d understand).

If things go as planned, that’s the most ridiculous roster since Kentucky 10 years ago.
Of the seven sportsbooks listed by VegasInsider, Florida/Duke are #1/#2 in six and are tied at #1 in the other, so it is at least a very common opinion
 
#420      
Insane to me more people don’t have Duke #1. Maybe folks are just bored with blue bloods (which I’d understand).

If things go as planned, that’s the most ridiculous roster since Kentucky 10 years ago.
I feel like one of the more crazy stories is that of this guy:


He was a top 35 recruit who redshirted this past season because he wouldn’t get playing time. Think about that: a top 35 recruit coming to Illinois, or anywhere not named Duke, and redshirting.

Then, to make matters even more absurd, he chose to come back this season, and will be entering the year as the presumed 11th man. Literally, the 11th man.

And if it isn’t him, then it’ll be one of their top 15 recruits — Rippey, Howard, or Williams. Or 16 year old Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who’s being labeled as one of the most high-ceiling big men for the next few years. Or Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski, who’d start on like 90% of rosters.

Plus, they landed a go-to scorer in Blackwell from the portal. And Boozer, Foster, Sarr, Ngomba all returned.

How on earth do you put together that much talent on one college basketball team?
 
#421      
Insane to me more people don’t have Duke #1. Maybe folks are just bored with blue bloods (which I’d understand).

If things go as planned, that’s the most ridiculous roster since Kentucky 10 years ago.
boozer led their team in every stat last year. and I don't see anyone returning that can fill that spot or that role without a big jump. he did a lot of lifting for them. the new guys are new so we will have to see. that's why I think top 5 is just fine for them
 
#423      
boozer led their team in every stat last year. and I don't see anyone returning that can fill that spot or that role without a big jump. he did a lot of lifting for them. the new guys are new so we will have to see. that's why I think top 5 is just fine for them

This, and I also feel Blackwell got massively overrated and overhyped. Plus shooter, good but not exceptional 2nd and 3rd level scorer, average defender, below average playmaker. 2nd best player on… Wisconsin?
 
#424      
And Torvik’s prediction model for 2027 currently has us at #4, so I think a preseason top 5 ranking in the AP is fairly likely:

View attachment 50418
I don't see the Houston hype. They lost Flemings, Sharp, and Uzan plus Cenac.

They have a solid center recruit in diafne and a solid transfer class but I don't see the #3 team in the country(I'm not huge Thomas fan).

Duke is absolutely loaded, Florida is loaded on the interior but I'm not sold on their guards(I don't think Aberdeen will get eligibility).

The team I've been most impressed by in the portal has been Tennessee. Basically an entirely new team but they have gotten some guys.
 
#425      
This, and I also feel Blackwell got massively overrated and overhyped. Plus shooter, good but not exceptional 2nd and 3rd level scorer, average defender, below average playmaker. 2nd best player on… Wisconsin?
I agree. Blackwell has never been the #1 option. Wisconsin brought in 2 transfer guards the last 2 years and they both were 1st team all big 10. Duke definitely overpaid for a guy that will compete with 3 other guards on their roster.
 
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