Illini Football 2023

aaeismacgychel said:

1. OSU- fixed
2. Purdue - fixed
3. Northwestern - fixed
4. Likely Oregon or USC
5. Likely UCLA or Washington

The other 4 games will likely include at least 2 regional rivals (Wisky, Iowa, Minn, Ind, Neb) to help with travel and at most 2 randos. How I see it, that's going to be a tough schedule most years.

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We will be playing a home game next October against Michigan for the 100th anniversary of the incredible Red Grange game -- been in the works for a decade, count on it.
https://archon.library.illinois.edu...me, which the Illini won, 39-14 over Michigan.

Dan said:

2023 Illinois Football (1-1, 0-0)

Date	Opponent	Result
Sat, Sept 2	Toledo	W 30-28
Fri, Sept 8	@Kansas	L 34-23
Sat, Sept 16	Penn State	11:00am FOX
Sat, Sept 23	Florida Atlantic	2:30pm BTN
Sat, Sept 30	@Purdue	(2:30pm/3:00pm/6:30pm)
Fri, Oct 6	Nebraska	7:00pm FS1
Sat, Oct 14	@Maryland	(11:00am/2:30pm/3:00pm)
Sat, Oct 21	Wisconsin (Homecoming)	(11:00am/2:30pm/3:00pm)
Sat, Nov 4	@Minnesota
Sat, Nov 11	Indiana
Sat, Nov 18	@Iowa
Sat, Nov 25	Northwestern

All times CT

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1-1 is an extremely reasonable start to this season. 2-2 would be fine, and still keep things on track for 6-7 wins. FAU is looking better than expected, but we're fans so we can assume things for a second:

Assuming that Illinois is 2-2 going into late September, the team really needs to play well in that @Purdue + Nebraska sequence. I get that the team has issues now and it might be hard for all of us to look at any remaining game and feel supremely confident, but those are two teams struggling with new coaching staffs where Illinois needs to grind out a win. After 4-2, you can resume dreaming of a higher ceiling for this season. 3-3 still provides lots of hope for bowling. 2-4? you have grave concerns.

mhuml32 said:

1-1 is an extremely reasonable start to this season. 2-2 would be fine, and still keep things on track for 6-7 wins. FAU is looking better than expected, but we're fans so we can assume things for a second:

Assuming that Illinois is 2-2 going into late September, the team really needs to play well in that @Purdue + Nebraska sequence. I get that the team has issues now and it might be hard for all of us to look at any remaining game and feel supremely confident, but those are two teams struggling with new coaching staffs where Illinois needs to grind out a win. After 4-2, you can resume dreaming of a higher ceiling for this season. 3-3 still provides lots of hope for bowling. 2-4? you have grave concerns.

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I think it is VERY difficult to predict our record right now. If Toledo really is as good as we think (for a MAC team), KU turns out to be seriously legit and the Big Ten West is as bad as some expect, our concerns might be totally overblown and 8+ wins is legitimately on the table. On the other hand, maybe we should trust our gut a bit more and go by the eye test, concluding our defense is a horrific disappointment, and our offense isn't good enough to make up for it?

As I said earlier, I think PSU will tell us a ton. Sure, they might be the best team on our schedule, but it's at home with so much "bulletin board material" for motivation that I think it will REALLY show us what's in the tank for this team. A blowout where we don't at least go down scratching and clawing will be very concerning, but a loss (and therefore 1-2 record) in and of itself is in no way alarming on paper.

orangem said:

We will be playing a home game next October against Michigan for the 100th anniversary of the incredible Red Grange game -- been in the works for a decade, count on it.
https://archon.library.illinois.edu/archives/index.phpp=digitallibrary/digitalcontent&id=1407#:~:text=Red Grange runs the ball past Michigan players,game, which the Illini won, 39-14 over Michigan.

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It did seem likely we'd have Michigan next year. Our schedule could legitimately look something like this next year:

Kansas
Central Michigan
Eastern Illinois
Purdue
Rutgers (?)
OSU
Michigan
USC
UCLA
Iowa
Wisconsin
Northwestern

6 wins would be a pretty great season if that's the case.

mhuml32 said:

SP+ Rankings after Week 1


Illinois ------------- 52 (+9) -------- Offense 78 (-4) --------- Defense 19 (+10) ------- Special Teams 13 (FR)


Toledo ------------- 67 (-4) -------- Offense 58 (-8) --------- Defense 83 (-8) ------- Special Teams 76 (FR)
Kansas ------------ 54 (-8) -------- Offense 27 (-6) --------- Defense 87 (-16) ------- Special Teams 25 (FR)
Florida Atlantic --- 71 (-13) ------- Offense 72 (-11) -------- Defense 68 (-17) ------- Special Teams 61 (FR)

Purdue ------------ 64 (+6) -------- Offense 53 (0) --------- Defense 81 (+26) ------- Special Teams 118 (FR)
Iowa ------------- 33 (+11) -------- Offense 93 (+14) --------- Defense 2 (+1) ------- Special Teams 30 (FR)
Minnesota -------- 39 (+12) -------- Offense 79 (+22) --------- Defense 10 (+1) ------- Special Teams 81 (FR)
Nebraska --------- 55 (-4) -------- Offense 74 (+6) --------- Defense 28 (-10) ------- Special Teams 19 (FR)
Wisconsin -------- 26 (+7) -------- Offense 42 (-1) --------- Defense 14 (+4) ------- Special Teams 51 (FR)
Northwestern ----- 100 (+15) -------- Offense 129 (+5) --------- Defense 57 (+28) ------- Special Teams 90 (FR)

Penn State ------- 9 (+3) -------- Offense 78 (-1) --------- Defense 19 (+1) ------- Special Teams 123 (FR)
Indiana ----------- 85 (+3) -------- Offense 92 (+21) --------- Defense 82 (-18) ------- Special Teams 27 (FR)
Maryland --------- 30 (-11) -------- Offense 44 (-3) --------- Defense 21 (-6) ------- Special Teams 72 (FR)


I'll try to move this to a spreadsheet next week

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- This week will be the lowest-ranked home opponent for Illinois since 2019 Wisconsin.
- SP+ changes can seem a little like turning a battleship, but suffice to say any double-digit changes in rankings is substantial. This means all of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska are trending substantially worse than expected through two weeks. Purdue is incrementally worse. Northwestern is incrementally better.
- Toledo is already ranked better than three B1G West teams and five B1G teams, overall.
- FAU took a sizable step back this week. They have Clemson this week (night game).
- Great sign than the offensive SP+ numbers for Illinois are still improving with the offensive line issues.

aaeismacgychel said:

It did seem likely we'd have Michigan next year. Our schedule could legitimately look something like this next year:

Kansas
Central Michigan
Eastern Illinois
Purdue
Northwestern
OSU
Michigan
USC
UCLA
Iowa
Wisconsin
Rutgers(?)

6 wins would be a pretty great season if that's the case.

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Brutal. Could easily see an 0-5 stretch from OSU to Iowa that would just derail whatever had been accomplished in the season to that point.

orangem said:

We will be playing a home game next October against Michigan for the 100th anniversary of the incredible Red Grange game -- been in the works for a decade, count on it.
https://archon.library.illinois.edu/archives/index.phpp=digitallibrary/digitalcontent&id=1407#:~:text=Red Grange runs the ball past Michigan players,game, which the Illini won, 39-14 over Michigan.

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Wouldn't mind a repeat performance of that game. Who will be our Grange this time?

mhuml32 said:

View attachment 28067

- This week will be the lowest-ranked home opponent for Illinois since 2019 Wisconsin.
- SP+ changes can seem a little like turning a battleship, but suffice to say any double-digit changes in rankings is substantial. This means all of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska are trending substantially worse than expected through two weeks. Purdue is incrementally worse. Northwestern is incrementally better.
- Toledo is already ranked better than three B1G West teams and five B1G teams, overall.
- FAU took a sizable step back this week. They have Clemson this week (night game).
- Great sign than the offensive SP+ numbers for Illinois are still improving with the offensive line issues.

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Thanks for doing these! The only thing that confuses me a bit is the Orange down arrow for improvement and the green up arrow for underperforming. I feel like those should flipped.

Usually they say you “move up” in the rankings as your ranking improves and you “move down” in the rankings as your ranking gets worse.

Again, appreciate your effort here. Really helpful.

lstewart53x3 said:

Thanks for doing these! The only thing that confuses me a bit is the Orange down arrow for improvement and the green up arrow for underperforming. I feel like those should flipped.

Usually they say you “move up” in the rankings as your ranking improves and you “move down” in the rankings as your ranking gets worse.

Again, appreciate your effort here. Really helpful.

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It's the only drawback through Excel. I can do the arrows up, showing a higher rank, but it must be in green (vice versa for lower ranking). Here is a solution - it provides the correct color coding, but doesn't include arrows:




Now green = better, red = worse, yellow = same.

With the new conference landscape of College Athletics... two things are now abundantly clear.

First, the Illini are fortunate to be a legacy member of one the remaining ‘Elite’ conferences.

And second, with the additions of the four West Coast power schools, the Illini are going to have to up their athletic-departments game in general and talent level in particular to compete at a high level going forward.

The footballers already had the likes of THE (whatevers), and Michigan and Penn State to contend with. Now the Illini get four more football powers to match up to.

And the roundballers... ditto. The Illini now have to deal with two huge legacy West Coast powers along with additional programs that are at a high level.

Yes, big conference money and exposure is great. But so is winning and rewarding your loyal fan base and competing for championships. And that requires everything in the Illini programs to elevate themselves further from today.

The Nebraska football program is a shining example of not staying ahead of the curve while everyone else passes you by. And it’s now going to be a long hard climb up for the Huskers to get back anywhere near to what they used to be. The Illini can’t let that happen to them.

This video was posted a few days ago on the Smith Center. I've watched this guy tour SEC facilities before, so it was nice to see him look at us. Plus it was a cool behind the scenes look.

IlliniKat91 said:

This video was posted a few days ago on the Smith Center. I've watched this guy tour SEC facilities before, so it was nice to see him look at us. Plus it was a cool behind the scenes look.

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Thanks for posting this, great look inside.

IlliniKat91 said:

This video was posted a few days ago on the Smith Center. I've watched this guy tour SEC facilities before, so it was nice to see him look at us. Plus it was a cool behind the scenes look.

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I have no idea what other schools facilities look like, but that is pretty darn impressive.

So, possibly a longer post and not sure if it being posted here is right, but here I go:

First year season ticket holders in section 130. Not sure if it's every game, but the recruits and their families were right next to us in section 129 for the Penn State game. My biggest question is, how can we expect them to want to come here when our student section is 75% gone by halftime? The place just didn't have any energy at all to potentially change one of these kids' minds. I understand the game wasn't what we thought it was going to be three months ago, but I still think us as fans and students need to help sell this university, otherwise, we will continue to be bottom half IMO. Also, the chauffeurs' legitimately were on their phones most of the game once they sat them all down. I just don't think that's a great look to these recruits and families. We've got the kids showing them around and supposed to be helping bring these kids home and they just show that they really don't want to be there. I know this a rant and it possibly could be better than this at times, but it's been eating at me since Saturday so I wanted to see what your guys' thoughts were on this?

some (many) are on their mobiles all the time, even when driving. staying engaged is a problem, but it's definitely not an Illini football specific one

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. TCU

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Memphis

Guaranteed Bowl
Projected matchup: Illinois vs. TCU

Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)​

Tie-In: Big Ten vs. MAC

Projection: Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan



Birmingham Bowl
Dec. 23 •
Birmingham, AL

Missouri
-5.5

Illinois

Duke’s Mayo Bowl​

Wednesday, December 27, 2023
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Last Season: Maryland 16, NC State 12
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Big Ten
Bowl Projection: Wake Forest vs Illinois

2023 Bowl Projections: Week 3

A really scientific projection of the Big Ten college football bowl games in 2023.

www.offtackleempire.com

I said in the PSU Postgame thread that IF Penn State is as good as everyone has been saying, we truly have some reason for optimism going forward, and a lot of other posters said the same thing before I did. With that in mind and given that I have now been able to see a few Big Ten teams play, this is my revised prediction under two potential scenarios.

Scenario A: PSU is a CFP contender, and we will continue to get better week to week. What we showed in flashes on Saturday will eventually be combined with way fewer turnovers and the type of disciplined football we got used to last year.
W vs. Florida Atlantic
W at Purdue
W vs. Nebraska
L at Maryland
W vs. Wisconsin
W at Minnesota
W vs. Indiana
L at Iowa
W vs. Northwestern

YEP! I think if we can carry the progress the defense made forward and cut down (A LOT) on the turnovers, there might legitimately be one loss left on the schedule. Now, I of course am not necessarily predicting a 9-3 or 8-4 record for sure ... I'm just saying that a consistent version of Saturday's squad (again, assuming PSU is truly a CFP contender) that cleans up its game could win every game left on the schedule. I picked two losses to be "safe" or "reasonable" or whatever, but this is NOT a daunting schedule for ANY of those weeks! I'm not sure we are any less likely to drop a home game vs. Wisconsin instead of a loss in College Park or lose in Minneapolis while picking up the upset in Iowa City. But that's not the point, really - I'm saying we can win every single game left, but the odds are we will not. In Scenario B below, I do not believe we can win every game left. In this one, whether or not we do, we can. I think the goal for this team needs to be 8 wins. That would be a smashing success of a season, and it's more than possible!

Scenario B: While our offense looked good early and our defense looked better yesterday, we will continue to have trouble with everything "clicking" at the same time. Some of the issues we have seen so far might continue to bite us.
W vs. Florida Atlantic
L at Purdue
W vs. Nebraska
L at Maryland
L vs. Wisconsin
W at Minnesota
W vs. Indiana
L at #24 Iowa
W vs. Northwestern

I still think 6-6 is possible even if things don't get cleaned up simply because I do believe the Big Ten West is pretty bad and that the Big Ten East outside of the "big three" isn't great, either. Take your pick on some of those "toss-ups," but the point is that under Scenario B, I think we will look great sometimes and look not so great other times, lol. It will be an up and down season. Some games like NU at home we should just simply win, and some games like at Maryland, I think we could see a similar result to Kansas if we can't become more consistent.

purcy51 said:

I have no idea what other schools facilities look like, but that is pretty darn impressive.

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Very impressive. Wow factor!

It was sold as a game-changer for recruiting. Has that happened?

purcy51 said:

I have no idea what other schools facilities look like, but that is pretty darn impressive.

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This list is from February 2022, so take that for whatever it's worth, but we stack up quite well if you ask me ... especially if you consider what is in our control. We hadn't even had last year's success story yet, so I think there has probably been a significant uptick in fan interest and donor support since this list was made (i.e., we were fighting way more of an uphill battle getting this thing built than we are now, IMO). Additionally, there will always be some things that are just out of our control (e.g., is Northwestern's facility really "better" than ours, or is it more that Champaign is not sitting next to Lake Michigan and never will be? Lol).

25. USC
24. Missouri
23. Texas Tech
22. Washington
21. North Carolina
20. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
19. Florida
18. Kentucky
17. Auburn
16. Tennessee
15. Arkansas
14. Michigan
13. Notre Dame
12. Oklahoma State
11. Oklahoma
10. Texas
9. Northwestern
8. LSU
7. South Carolina
6. Ohio State
5. Georgia
4. Clemson
3. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
1. Oregon

Again, it's just one list and this is of course subjective, but ... that's a very impressive sport for this program to be, especially as of just after the 5-7 2021 campaign and having not had a winning regular season in 14 years...

Ahead of USC? One spot behind Florida? These are programs with BIG war chests and even bigger egos, haha. #4 in the Big Ten behind only OSU, Michigan and a Northwestern facility that seems entirely hyped because of the lake view? I'm a Chicagoan and love Lake Michigan and fully admit that view is incredible, but that's not something we can control and cannot reasonably be held against Whitman or the athletic department. I hope we enjoy some of the recruiting gains to be had from that gorgeous facility while it is still considered new and flashy, because the arms race is never ending!

djkirkpatrick22 said:

So, possibly a longer post and not sure if it being posted here is right, but here I go:

First year season ticket holders in section 130. Not sure if it's every game, but the recruits and their families were right next to us in section 129 for the Penn State game. My biggest question is, how can we expect them to want to come here when our student section is 75% gone by halftime? The place just didn't have any energy at all to potentially change one of these kids' minds. I understand the game wasn't what we thought it was going to be three months ago, but I still think us as fans and students need to help sell this university, otherwise, we will continue to be bottom half IMO. Also, the chauffeurs' legitimately were on their phones most of the game once they sat them all down. I just don't think that's a great look to these recruits and families. We've got the kids showing them around and supposed to be helping bring these kids home and they just show that they really don't want to be there. I know this a rant and it possibly could be better than this at times, but it's been eating at me since Saturday so I wanted to see what your guys' thoughts were on this?

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I went to a Wisconsin game to visit a relative last year. The student section took all first half to fill. 10 minutes after jump around 80% were gone. And wisc was winning. It’s not an illini problem.

Gillme said:

I went to a Wisconsin game to visit a relative last year. The student section took all first half to fill. 10 minutes after jump around 80% were gone. And wisc was winning. It’s not an illini problem.

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I'll drink to that..

Fighter of the Nightman said:

This list is from February 2022, so take that for whatever it's worth, but we stack up quite well if you ask me ... especially if you consider what is in our control. We hadn't even had last year's success story yet, so I think there has probably been a significant uptick in fan interest and donor support since this list was made (i.e., we were fighting way more of an uphill battle getting this thing built than we are now, IMO). Additionally, there will always be some things that are just out of our control (e.g., is Northwestern's facility really "better" than ours, or is it more that Champaign is not sitting next to Lake Michigan and never will be? Lol).

25. USC
24. Missouri
23. Texas Tech
22. Washington
21. North Carolina
20. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
19. Florida
18. Kentucky
17. Auburn
16. Tennessee
15. Arkansas
14. Michigan
13. Notre Dame
12. Oklahoma State
11. Oklahoma
10. Texas
9. Northwestern
8. LSU
7. South Carolina
6. Ohio State
5. Georgia
4. Clemson
3. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
1. Oregon

Again, it's just one list and this is of course subjective, but ... that's a very impressive sport for this program to be, especially as of just after the 5-7 2021 campaign and having not had a winning regular season in 14 years...

Ahead of USC? One spot behind Florida? These are programs with BIG war chests and even bigger egos, haha. #4 in the Big Ten behind only OSU, Michigan and a Northwestern facility that seems entirely hyped because of the lake view? I'm a Chicagoan and love Lake Michigan and fully admit that view is incredible, but that's not something we can control and cannot reasonably be held against Whitman or the athletic department. I hope we enjoy some of the recruiting gains to be had from that gorgeous facility while it is still considered new and flashy, because the arms race is never ending!

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I do find that surprising, kind of, maybe I'm just thinking of 'the product' that goes with it. Any chance you can cross reference those ' facilities' w/ best rated 'programs', ? NW and ILL seem like the two in that list that would "drop" the most, so to speak.